Blackbird — reading the board and betting with Fate's Prophecy (1.4)

The ability at a glance

At the start of rounds 1, 3 and 5, one of six Fate's Prophecies at random — it arrives before you use a Device

• · Blackbird is a character added in 1.4 — unlock condition: Win 10 bids on Red Collectibles
• · At the start of rounds 1, 3 and 5, one of the six arrives with equal odds (1/6). Each round draws separately, so the same prophecy can come up again
• · The prophecy arrives before you use that round's Device — see the prophecy, then pick your Device
• · The chance that ⑥ (value) comes up at least once in the three draws is about 42% — the chance to pin down a high-value piece right away comes more often than you'd think

Prophecy odds — what comes when

17% chance of ⑥ in round 1, 58% chance all three pass without a ⑥ — the prophecy is a bonus; confirm high value with Devices

• · ⑥ (value) in round 1 = 16.7% — it's one in six, so don't count on spotting a jackpot from round 1
• · Chance of no ⑥ in all three = 57.9% — more than half of Blackbird matches end without a ⑥. Exactly once 34.7% · twice or more 7.4%
• · ③ or ⑥ (the prophecies that confirm a collectible) at least once = 33% by round 1 · 56% by round 3 · 70% by round 5 — information that settles a value comes in two of every three matches
• · The value a round-1 ⑥ shows is mostly under 300K (Pearl 82% · Coral 94%) — if it's over 300K, you've pinned down a piece that lifts the board value a lot
• · Boards with a jackpot are only 1.6% in Pearl · 0.5% in Coral. On those boards, in a round where ⑥ arrives, it pins the jackpot — Pearl 24% · Coral 42%
• · Boards where the prophecies alone reveal a jackpot by round 5, even counting ②'s silhouette: Pearl 26% · Coral 38% — find the rest with Devices (Collectible · 2-slot · 9-slot average)

What the six tell you

① measures the whole board, ③⑥ confirm collectibles, ② gives the top rarity's spot, ④⑤ read the board broadly

• · ① gives the same number even if it comes again in round 3 or 5 — the board has only one total count, so there's nothing new
• · ② and ⑥ pick the same collectible again only when you already know every piece of that rarity — usually they point at a new one

① Collectible count — estimating board value from the count

The more collectibles, the pricier the board, but the wider the spread — check the average and jackpot odds with the calculator

• · The calculator below uses the real collectible counts and board values of board scans (1.3 + 1.4) confirmed in Log a Match. A board scan counts the whole board, so it's the same number as prophecy ①
• · Collectibles per board: median 36 in Pearl (eight boards in ten have 25–47) · 28 in Coral (20–40)

• · The count alone is weak at telling board values apart — board value is mostly decided by the Red count (Records' Board Value Estimator — the Red and Gold counts give an R² of about 0.6, the collectible count and slots alone only 0.12)
• · So read ① only as "board size", and when ④ (rarity) or ⑥ (value) comes in as well, trust that instead
• · Coral has few samples — when the calculator shows "few samples, reference only", look at Pearl + 1.3 as well

⑥ Top-rarity value · ③ 3 collectibles — confirming the collectible

With ⑥, the price is the identity — 8,989,898 means Stringblade, 5,121,024 means Data Vault

• · ⑥ gives the price of the one collectible of the highest rarity on the board — that rarity is Red on 93% of Pearl boards and 74% of Coral boards
• · It doesn't tell you the spot, but the price tells you the identity — every Red collectible has a different price

Golden Koi Statue22,668,888Pendragon Model20,171,210Luminous Goblet16,800,000Azure Cascade11,235,813Stringblade8,989,898Data Vault5,121,024Eternal Heart1,314,520Antique Suitcase577,777Cloudveil Cup500,000

• · Odds that a round-1 ⑥ pins a jackpot: 0.38% of all Pearl boards · 24% on boards with a jackpot / Coral 0.2% · 42% on boards with a jackpot — Coral has fewer Red pieces (1.8 per board, 4.1 in Pearl), so a jackpot, when there is one, is easier to hit
• · Odds that a round-1 ⑥ pins Eternal Heart (1,314,520): about 2% of Pearl boards · 0.5% in CoralEternal Heart1,314,520
• · ③ opens the identities of 3 random collectibles as they are — it doesn't pick high-value ones, but whatever it hits has a settled value. On boards with a jackpot, ③ and ⑥ confirm the jackpot by round 5 on 15% in Pearl · 23% in Coral

② Top-rarity silhouette — spot and shape only

② gives a spot, not an identity — narrow it to the Red candidates of that shape, then confirm with a Device

• · ② also picks the highest-rarity collectible, but all it tells you is its shape and spot — not its value
• · Narrow it to the Red candidates of that shape. 5×5: Pendragon Model (20,171,210) · Little Oink Bank (500,001); 4×4: Golden Koi Statue (22,668,888) and others; 3×3: Luminous Goblet (16,800,000) · Nine-Bite Snack Box (240,208) and others; 3×1: Stringblade (8,989,898) · Favorite Pizza (29,977)Pendragon Model20,171,210Little Oink Bank500,001Golden Koi Statue22,668,888Luminous Goblet16,800,000Nine-Bite Snack Box240,208Stringblade8,989,898Favorite Pizza29,977
• · If the shape alone doesn't split the candidates, confirm with that round's Device (2-slot · 9-slot average · Collectible) — Reading color cells and silhouettes

When you spot a high-value piece in round 1 — Coral

In Coral it's hard to bet over 1M — probe for the Eternal Heart, bet safely on a jackpot in round 1

• · Eternal Heart (1,314,520) is rare, showing up on only about 1.4% of Coral boards. If you spot it in round 1, try around 800K as a probe
  • – Check the round-1 results to see whether anyone followed — if someone bid similarly high, they saw it too
  • – In round 2, raise to 1.5M or more to lock it in — watch whether anyone follows, then win it in round 2
  Eternal Heart1,314,520
• · If a jackpot pricier than the Eternal Heart is confirmed (⑥ price · ③ identity), bet right away in round 1 — safely, hoping no one else saw it
  • – Data Vault (5,121,024) = 2M–3M · Stringblade (8,989,898) = 3M–4M
  • – In Coral, few players follow these amounts — if someone does, they've confirmed it too
  Data Vault5,121,024Stringblade8,989,898
• · A normal Coral board ends under 1M — the Asset Requirement is 1M and the median board value is in the 600Ks. If you haven't spotted anything high-value, read only the board size from ① and stay low

When you spot a high-value piece in round 1 — Pearl

The Eternal Heart is common in Pearl — it won't decide the board; chase a jackpot toward its full price

• · Eternal Heart (1,314,520) appears on 22% of 1.4 Pearl boards — others can easily spot it with Haniel or Devices too. Don't go big on the Eternal Heart alone; judge by board value (the Red count)Eternal Heart1,314,520
• · If a jackpot is confirmed, open at 4M–5M in round 1 and raise each round, chasing up to 80–90% of its full price
• · If ① came out large (45+), there are several Red pieces — the one ⑥ pinned isn't the whole board value

Round 3 and 5 prophecies — late information

The round-3 prophecy is for checking against the bids through round 2, the round-5 one for setting your final value

• · Round 3: match the prophecy against who's still in after round 2 and their bids — if ⑥ is a jackpot and someone bid high in round 2, they know it too
• · A round-3 ① is the same number as in round 1 — if you got ① in round 1, a round-3 ① tells you nothing new
• · Round 5 is highest-bid-wins — use the round-5 prophecy to count the board value one last time, and bet only up to that value

Device Sets and Playbook routes

Blackbird spots with prophecies and confirms with Devices — two branches: No-Device and Advanced All-round

• · Playbook route Blackbird 1R All-in (Advanced All-round) — pin high value directly with Collectible (Large) in round 1; the prophecy is a bonus
• · Blackbird 1R All-in (No-Device) — prophecies only, no Devices — you spend nothing but the entry fee
• · For a 1×2 or 2×1 Red silhouette, use the 2-slot average (Advanced All-round) to tell whether it's a Data Vault — over 280K means a Data Vault
• · See Blackbird's real lot-win rate and win rate in Character win-rate stats

Blackbird 1R All-in (Advanced All-round)1.4PearlIf the 1R prophecy is a value, silhouette or identity, go all-in in 1R — the standard line is Collectible (Large) in 1R to confirm where the high-value collectible sits; Rarity (Large) first also works. The 2-slot average is optional. Re-judge with the 3R and 5R propheciesAdvanced All-roundBlackbird 1R All-in (No-Device)1.4PearlOnly the Fate's Prophecies in 1R, 3R and 5R, no devices — all-in if a value or identity confirms a high-value collectible, play off the floor if it's a silhouette, and otherwise hold out low for the bonusNo tools